The ageing era: why the world is facing an unprecedented demographic shift
The world is entering a completely new and uncharted demographic era. Today, more than two thirds of the global population live in countries where fertility rates are insufficient even for simple population replacement. At the same time, populations are ageing rapidly, and in many regions of the world population decline has already begun. These issues were addressed by Professor of Sociology at the University of California, Irvine (USA) Wang Feng during the lecture "Uncharted Territories: Global Demographic Shifts and What They Mean for Us". The event took place on 30 January at the National Centre RUSSIA.
The expert’s lecture formed part of the January Expert Dialogues, during which the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office of the Russian Federation, Maxim Oreshkin, presented five megatrends that are already shaping the trajectory of global development for the coming decades. Among them was "The Demographic Catastrophe after the Population Peak".
"Over the past seven years, the United Nations has lowered its forecast for the peak global population by as much as one billion people, from ten billion to nine. It is quite possible that this figure will be revised again. How and why did this happen? The answer is very encouraging: because average life expectancy worldwide has increased by as much as 25 years in recent times," Wang Feng explained.
According to him, this development also has a downside. The average age of the global population has risen significantly, and humanity is ageing at a rapid pace. As a result, fertility rates have declined. Today, the global average is two children per woman, whereas several decades ago it stood at five.
"To explain the reasons behind such low fertility rates, I will use East Asia as an example. In the 1980s, around 15% of women there remained unmarried; today this figure is twice as high. In Taiwan, it has reached 49–51% <...> Why do women choose not to marry or have children? There are many reasons, ranging from the high cost of living and education to unwillingness to tolerate gender inequality. All of this is well known. The problem is not awareness. The problem is that nowhere have government measures or subsidies so far been able to significantly increase fertility rates," Wang Feng noted.
The professor added that in the near future the current situation will lead to the average age of half the population in Russia, China and Western Europe reaching 50 within just three decades.
"Economic growth rates are slowing down, and young people in South Korea and Japan are beginning to feel pressure. Teenagers are no longer as financially secure as their parents were. They do not want to have many children because they feel they cannot afford it. This is something that must be addressed, because this trend will soon spread to China and then across the rest of the world," Wang Feng emphasised.
In conclusion, the professor noted that almost all countries are already facing the challenge of population ageing. Addressing it will require swift government responses and a clear package of measures. The potential exists, both socially and in terms of human capital.
The January Expert Dialogues of the Open Dialogue "The Future of the World. A New Platform for Global Growth" were held at the National Centre RUSSIA on 30 January for the first time. The lead speaker of the event was the Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office of the Russian Federation, Maxim Oreshkin.
Event photobank
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