Andrei Belousov at the RUSSIA EXPO: "The strategic goal is the development of the supply-side economy"
The goal of
the Russian economy is to reach the 4th place in the world by 2030 in terms of
GDP in purchasing power parity. It is planned that by this indicator Russia
will overtake the economy of Japan. This was announced by Acting First Deputy
Prime Minister of Russia Andrei Belousov at the plenary session of the National
Priorities Day "Efficient and Competitive Economy" of the
International RUSSIA EXPO.
The
national development goals of the country for the period up to 2030 and in the
perspective up to 2036 were set in the relevant Decree of the President of the
Russian Federation Vladimir Putin. One of the main goals that ensures economic
growth is the development of the supply-side economy by improving labor
efficiency, increasing the production of goods and services, increasing
investment and income and, as a result, increasing final demand.
"It is
necessary to create conditions when the impetus for growth arises not from the
outside, not from the side of money demand. It appears inside the production
sector itself. This can be achieved by improving the employment structure,
expanding entrepreneurial activity, ensuring investment growth, increasing the
efficiency of the real sector and services, increasing labor productivity,
including automation, new management systems and the development of artificial
intelligence technologies," said Andrei Belousov, outlining the main
directions for the introduction of supply-side economics.
According
to him, the drivers of growth in the structure of goods and services should be
information technologies and communications, culture and sports, healthcare and
social services, education and scientific and technical activities. At the same
time, the growth rate of supply in information technology and communications in
2030 on an accrual basis by 2024 should exceed 130% of GDP.
"GDP
growth by 2030 is broken down into three components: growth in consumer
spending, followed by growth in labor productivity and real wages - this is the
bundle, the impetus that comes from the supply side; investment in fixed
capital and oil and gas exports," said Andrei Belousov. These three
factors give about 16% of GDP growth.
Among the
conditions for growth of the supply-side economy, Andrei Belousov noted four
main drivers. The first is the dynamics of labor productivity, which includes a
combination of four simultaneously operating growth factors: "lean
manufacturing", digitalization of business processes, automation of
production and technological processes, as well as qualified personnel.
The second
is investment growth. It will require a change in the structure of the source
of investment funding throughout the period.
"If
today this structure carries 24% of borrowed funds, about 20% of budgetary
funds and 56% of own funds, then by 2030 the amount of borrowed funds will be
expanded by 4% and will amount to about 30%," said Andrei Belousov.
The third
is the growth of non-resource non-energy exports. Due to the national projects
"International Cooperation and Export", initiatives of VEB.RF and
REC, as well as road maps for the development of transport and logistics
corridors, the growth rate of non-resource non-energy exports with government
support in real terms will increase by more than 1.5 times by 2030.
The fourth
one is the formation of transport and logistics corridors for Russian cargoes,
the throughput and carrying capacity of which will exceed 1.4 billion tons by
2030 under the target scenario, summed up Andrei Belousov.
According
to Maxim Reshetnikov, Acting Minister of Economic Development of Russia, the
value guidelines in the Government's work on the development of the supply-side
economy are the quality of its key institutions: private property, freedom of
pricing and competition.
"We
will build and develop the economy on these three postulates in the coming
years," emphasized the head of the Ministry of Economic Development of
Russia.
In
particular, he noted that business should be more actively involved in the
development of the institution of ownership by selling to it those assets that
are not critical to national interests and can be managed by the private sector
more effectively. In the conditions of sanctions and restrictions, the
interests of domestic producers are actively protected. Moreover, the principle
of competition within the country is also supported through the search for new
partners in friendly states, expansion of free trade zones, growth of
investments and development of cooperation. A favorable investment climate,
beneficial and predictable conditions for investors are being formed in the
private capital sector.
"The
structure of investments is changing, projects are becoming more complex and
technological. The main thing is to maintain the pace, not to let the
challenges and constraints "accelerate". For this purpose, we use
instruments of hedging interest risks, providing stable conditions," Maxim
Reshetnikov emphasized, adding that the supply-side economy is the economy of
practical solutions.
The plenary
session of the National Priorities Day "Future Opportunities: Efficient
and Competitive Economy" was also attended by Maria Bagreyeva, Deputy
Mayor of Moscow, Head of the Department of Economic Policy and Development of
Moscow, Andrei Chibis, Governor of the Murmansk region, Petr Fradkov, Chairman
of Promsvyazbank, Alexander Isaevich, CEO of SME Corporation, Sergei
Shishkarev, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Delo Group of Companies,
representatives of regions and industry communities.
The
discussion focused on supply-side economy, labor productivity, the role of
federal and regional authorities in improving the investment climate, support
for high-tech industries, SMEs and business activity. The discussion revolved
around the influence of the financial sector on the stimulation of investment
attraction by enterprises, and the removal of transport and logistics
restrictions to ensure the country's logistical sovereignty.
It is worth
reminding that the RUSSIA EXPO is held on the territory of VDNH in Moscow from
November 4 to July 8. It has already been visited by more than 12 million
people. The RUSSIA EXPO features expositions of 89 Russian regions, leading
federal agencies, corporations and public organizations.
