The housing answer to the demographic question

On the eve of the II International Symposium "Inventing the Future", the VTSIOM Analytical Centre together with the National Centre RUSSIA presents the results of a survey conducted among Russians on what factors are important for young people while making a decision to get married and start a family. 

Speaking briefly about the main subject: 

• The top 3 reasons why, according to Russians, young people do not rush to the registry office: financial and economic challenges (71% of responses), values of individualism, alienation from the institution of family (54% of responses) and housing problems (24%).

• Having one's own place to live (49%) and a high income (41%) are the key factors which can improve the demographic situation.

• 48% of respondents believe that it is possible for people to get married and have children even without having their own place yet, 44% of the respondents disagree with this. In their opinion, it is possible to get married and have children only when the problem of personal housing is solved.

Data from official statistics and the VTsIOM Analytical Centre indicate the transformation of the family institution in Russia, and this transformation is so far associated with negative trends: the  number of divorces is growing, the total fertility rate is decreasing, and Russians are failing to achieve their reproductive plans. The measurement taken in July showed that the reasons for this situation are quite prosaic, and the problem is not that young people prefer a comfortable life to having children.

The housing issue has ruined... demographics?

Despite the popular stereotype that the young people refuse marriage out of selfishness or mindlessness, the data suggest the opposite – the reasons for postponing marriage (according to the adult Russians and the young people themselves) today are primarily economic. Among these are financial problems and feeling insecure about the future (71% of responses), rather than a  values rebellion. Representatives of the digital generation and millennials, those for whom the marriage issue is especially relevant, talk about economic factors most often.

One in four respondents thinks that the housing issue is the reason for the youth's unwillingness to marry. Combined with low living standards, high bank rates, general instability, and rising prices, this creates a persistent factor of structural fear of family responsibility: getting married without meeting basic conditions, like getting your own home, a stable job, prospects, and confidence in the future, simply becomes impossible.

Values of individualism and "anti-family" attitudes also have an impact there, but not so much -- 54% of responses. They are mentioned less often by the youngest people (the digital generation and younger millennials) than, for example, by the generation of older millennials or the  generation of the period of reforms. Criticism of the young people as "infantile" ones often comes not from the young people themselves and not from their self-perceptions, but from the older generations. The interpretation of the situation given by the latter is a classic story of fathers and children.

One more reason is the priority of self-realization. Every fifth person from the digital generation talks about the necessity to first "get on your feet", study, build a career, engage in self-realization, and only then think about family. Here we are talking not so much about the rejection of marriage, as about the "postponement" of having children until the moment when the young people become wealthy and free.

The overall picture is as follows: economic factors are leading the way, but cultural and psychological factors are also increasing, including a value shift (but not a crisis!), a new logic of growing up is being shaped, and standards of personal readiness for marriage are changing – they are no longer so much related to age as to accumulated resources.

Darling, it seems you're (not) going to be a dad soon.…

Judging by the responses of Russians, parenthood is perceived today as a life stage for which one must be prepared both financially and mentally.

Financial insecurity is the number one barrier, especially for the youngest Russians. In addition, the issue of having no housing of their own is acute: one in four considers it an obstacle to having children.

Along with external barriers, various fears also slow down having a family: the fear of not becoming a good parent, the fear of having a marriage ruined, and the fear of not coping with difficulties and upbringing of the children. However, it is impossible to say unequivocally what lies behind these fears: the psychological insecurity of the generation or the high standards of parenthood.

Contrary to the statements about "selfish young people," attitudes such as "children are an obstacle to freedom" or "I want to live for myself" more often come not from the young people themselves, but from older generations. At the same time, Russians rarely believe that the young people refuse to have children because they want first to "get on their feet." However, as for representatives of the digital generation, one in five of them thinks exactly so. Young people don't so much give up parenthood as postpone it for the sake of preparation. In other words, children are no longer considered to be the beginning of adulthood, now they are its high point, a symbol of the achieved stability.

What do these two issues show? Readiness for family and marriage becomes "material", and high salaries and having one's own housing can improve the situation. But there is a problem there. Although marriage is perceived as a step towards maturity, having children requires more inner confidence. That is, if the external conditions are acceptable, the young people are ready for marriage rather than for children. The children come to the stage only after achieving psychological, financial and social stability by the potential parents. The young people are not afraid so much of children themselves, but rather of the possibility that they will not become good parents corresponding to the high standards. A significant part of society, apparently, does not fully share these thoughts, and prefers to accuse the young people of infantilism -- "after all, our grandmothers and mothers gave birth at the age of 18, and there were no diapers, so why don't you want to have kids?"

The key to an apartment door is the key to living with many children

The answers to the direct question of what will encourage families to have a second and subsequent child confirm the conclusions given above: housing and a consistently high income will. Moreover, having their own housing is especially important for younger millennials -- those who, apparently, are at the stage of solving the housing issue (and are in active reproductive age). Government support comes in third place, thus coming before reliable work and a financial cushion. But it does not compensate for basic things -- primarily, the housing. The remaining options are highly secondary: affordable medical care, availability of kindergarten, a supportive environment, and a positive attitude towards families with children in society. In other words, in today's conditions, it is the basic resources — a "roof over your head" and a stable income — that become the main condition for procreation, while even institutional support measures play a role only if there is a solid material foundation.

At the same time, exactly the young people (the digital generation), those who are already in the active reproductive age or who will soon enter it, have the strictest requirements for the conditions of having a second and a subsequent child. In addition to income and benefits, they pay considerable attention to the financial safety cushion, and the digital generation also pays attention to guaranteed enrollment in kindergarten and a favorable living environment. Flexible work hours and medical care become relevant later in life (for millennials, and for the generation of the period of reforms), when, perhaps, they already have children, and the necessity of these things is obvious. And the role of grandmothers is considered more important by the "grandmothers" themselves (the generation of the Stagnation period).

A paradise with a loved one in a hut is possible if he drives a Porsche...

The housing issue divided Russians into two camps and became another "fathers and children" issue. Almost half of Russians believe that having no housing of your own, you should not  get married and have children, and almost the same number of people state the opposite, relying on leasing an apartment or living with their parents. Among the zoomers (the digital generation) and younger millennials, the overwhelming majority are sure: first the housing, then the family and children. At the same time, older generations, especially those who survived the 90s, are much more likely to put up with temporary domestic issues for the sake of a family , as they are well aware that everything or almost everything can be handled.

Behind these differences lies the difference in the life experience of generations. Young Russians grew up in a period of time when access to housing became more marketable and less guaranteed, so they do not see the state or the family as a reliable guarantor of the "square meters". That is why they rely on independent stability, and postpone the family until this stability is reached. The attitude towards housing as a necessary condition for starting a family is becoming the norm among the younger generation, and to ignore this factor in demographic policy means to  misunderstand the motivation of those on whom future birth rate depends.

The issue of demography will become one of the main topics of the II International Symposium "Inventing the Future", which will be held at the National Centre RUSSIA on 7-8 October 2025. This issue will be a part of the track "Society", which is co-organized by the VTSIOM Analytical Centre. The experts will focus on the role and place of man in the society of the future. The Symposium will bring together leading experts from all over the world to design the image of the future. Participants will express their thoughts on how to reverse the trends indicated by public opinion polls.