Maxim Oreshkin at International Festival of Youth — 2026: "The future is not predicted — it is designed"

At the International Festival of Youth – 2026, Maxim Oreshkin, Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office of the Russian Federation, presented key points on shifts in global economic and demographic balances, technological transformation and the role of people in the new economy as part of the Open Dialogue "The Future of the World. A New Platform for Global Growth". The new session of the international expert project by the National Centre RUSSIA, titled "The World of the Future: What World Will We Invent?", was held on 15 September at the Yekaterinburg-EXPO International Exposition Centre.

The economy is no longer unipolar

Opening his speech, Maxim Oreshkin highlighted the emerging global trend towards a multipolar world economy. According to him, until recently, the G7 countries accounted for almost half of the global economy, while the BRICS countries accounted for only one fifth. Today, the proportions have reversed: the company of emerging-market economies is gradually moving ahead, while the share of traditional economic centres is declining.

The global economy increasingly resembles a network of interconnected centres of growth rather than a hierarchy with a single dominant centre. As the economic balance changes, so does the architecture of international relations.

"The G7 countries and Western countries used to dominate the creation of new technological solutions, but the situation is changing. China has already taken first place, while Russia is moving up the rankings. The BRICS countries are also beginning to play an increasingly important role in this area, first of all India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Indonesia and Egypt. At the same time, most of the economic growth and development by the end of the 21st century will come from African and Southeast Asian countries, which occupy advantageous economic positions as connectors and centres for the development and flow of goods, capital, knowledge and technology," Maxim Oreshkin stressed.

Speaking about the impact of sanctions on economic dynamics, he also noted that, based on the experience of recent years, those imposing sanctions are the first to suffer from them. Maxim Oreshkin recalled that Russia is subject to more sanctions than any other country, while its economy has grown by 10.3% over the past three years — above the global rate overall.

Maxim Oreshkin also highlighted three key levels of sovereignty for every country: state sovereignty, associated with territorial integrity and the security of citizens; societal sovereignty, encompassing national values, history, religions and the cultural code; and socio-economic sovereignty, bringing together the country's resources and human capital.

Demography changes everything

Speaking about the new demographic picture of the world, Maxim Oreshkin stressed that forecasts have changed significantly over recent decades. According to current research, the world's population is now expected to reach its peak as early as 2046. At the same time, the familiar demographic structure of the planet is gradually changing: the share of the working-age population is declining, which will have a significant impact on global economic processes.

"The older population is growing step by step, and this trend will continue. Africa's share of the world's population is increasing. The number of people above working age is growing significantly, which means that the burden on the working-age population will increase considerably. At the same time, fertility is declining unevenly: in some places it is falling, while in others it remains high. According to our forecasts, by the end of this century, most of the working-age population will be concentrated in African countries," Maxim Oreshkin stressed.

The Deputy Chief of Staff of the Presidential Executive Office of the Russian Federation noted that while Africa will be home to the majority of the world's working-age population by the end of the century, the ratio of older to working people in Asia will change dramatically. Today, most births take place in Asia, primarily India, and Africa, and according to Maxim Oreshkin, these regions will be home to most of the world's population in several decades.

He also stressed that demographic shifts would bring major changes to the global economy, primarily increasing the burden on pension systems regardless of their model, since the goods and services consumed by pensioners are ultimately produced by the working-age population. As the working-age population shrinks, financial assets and real estate will become less valuable. As an example, he cited China, where, according to him, the population will fall from the current 1.4 billion to 500 million by the end of the century, with a significant decline in the urban population as well. Changes in the age structure will also increase the importance of healthcare and reduce education's share of the economy. According to the speaker, this process is already visible in South Korea and China, where schools are closing because of a sharp decline in birth rates. Overall, this trend will change the structure of international economic ties, as centres of working-age and elderly populations will be located in different parts of the world.

Technology is becoming widespread and accessible

According to Maxim Oreshkin, amid the global transformation of socio-economic processes, AI, digital platforms and autonomous systems will play a major role in shaping the new technological stack of the economy. The capabilities of models are expanding, while the cost of using them is falling by orders of magnitude. Artificial intelligence is already being used in medical diagnostics, the analysis of large volumes of data, content production and other areas. Increasingly, the question is not whether to use AI, but how quickly and effectively it can be integrated into real economic processes.

"Fifteen years ago, we spoke only about specialised AI — machine learning. Today we are entering the era of generative artificial intelligence, which is already based on all of humanity's knowledge. Individual agents can easily perform certain functions and interact with the outside world, and we are getting closer to the era of artificial general intelligence. One of the main trends is the falling cost of using models. As they develop, they become higher-quality and more efficient; computing becomes cheaper, and the energy consumption of computing per unit of processing decreases. All of this means that artificial intelligence is beginning to play a role in an increasing number of processes in our lives," Maxim Oreshkin added.

Another technology actively changing the world, he said, is digital platforms. Maxim Oreshkin noted that they represent a fundamentally new way of organising industries, combining the best features of market and planned economies. As an example, he cited the taxi industry, where the use of platforms has increased the utilisation of drivers in Moscow's taxi sector from 30% to more than 80% of their working time. According to him, this approach makes it much easier to introduce artificial intelligence, since a digital platform is built from the outset around data on all participants and transactions. In the coming decades, this process will extend to areas such as healthcare and education. The speaker placed particular emphasis on digital sovereignty. According to him, sovereignty can be at a zero level when data is stored on a foreign platform outside the country. In such a case, economic activity can be halted from outside at any moment. There is also a basic level of digital sovereignty, when the platform belongs to another country but data is localised within the state. The advanced level, which Russia has achieved across all areas, according to Maxim Oreshkin, involves using domestic solutions and platforms, with all data stored within the country.

The role of people is changing, but not disappearing

As technology develops, the set of key human competencies is also changing. Critical thinking is becoming more important than simply being able to delegate tasks to algorithms. Technological literacy and soft skills are gaining increasing value.

"First and foremost, the use of AI today is affecting not the automation of manual labour, but intellectual work. The areas where AI is being actively integrated include management, law, business and services, administrative support, mathematics, and the natural and social sciences. At the same time, manual labour, construction and agriculture are being automated to a much lesser extent. We need to keep all this in mind and understand that the principles of work will change, but a balance should be maintained. Complete reliance on artificial intelligence leads to a decline in people's critical thinking and overall level of knowledge. However, if people manage this process properly, AI will help us achieve the best possible results when it comes to flexibility, creativity and curiosity," Maxim Oreshkin stressed.

Four areas shaping quality of life

The changes affect not only the economy but also people's everyday lives. Maxim Oreshkin highlighted four areas that are becoming particularly important in the new reality:

Education — a continuous development system based on platforms, data and the capabilities of artificial intelligence.

Health — a shift from episodic treatment to managing a person's health throughout their lifetime. The quality of work and the analysis of research are improving.

Culture — not only content, but also competition for attention, identity and behavioural patterns. Composers, producers, screenwriters and writers are actively using AI to create content. According to research, around 50% of audio tracks are generated with the help of AI, while only a few people are able to distinguish music written by humans from AI-generated works. The structure of content consumption on social media is changing: the volume of English-language content is declining, while interest in short-form formats is growing.

The city — not a collection of individual technologies, but an interconnected system of services built around people. According to the speaker, Moscow is the world's most comfortable city, while other cities with populations of more than one million are also developing rapidly thanks to digital services.

Russia's own model of the future

What Russia is now designing for itself and its citizens, Maxim Oreshkin noted, is essentially a platform for the future that the country is ready to share with the world. According to him, Russia has strong sovereign solutions both in traditional sectors — energy, agriculture, logistics and industrial production — and in advanced areas such as artificial intelligence, digital platforms and autonomous systems, as well as healthcare, human development, culture and modern urban life. He stressed that Russia not only uses these solutions itself but is also ready to share them with any country in the world on the principles of equal partnership — unlike Western countries. In particular, according to him, when Russian platforms enter foreign markets, full data localisation and joint work with local companies are envisaged.

"In a world where sovereignty is becoming crucial, it is precisely the combination of each country's history, culture and uniqueness with technological solutions such as artificial intelligence and digital platforms that makes it possible to respond to today's challenges. And this, of course, shapes the future of every country. And we, as Russia, which is leading this global development, are ready to build the future of every country together for the benefit of every person on this planet," Maxim Oreshkin concluded.

The international expert project Open Dialogue "The Future of the World. A New Platform for Global Growth" is implemented by the National Centre RUSSIA in partnership with the Centre for Intersectoral Expertise "The Third Rome". The project provides an independent platform for an open exchange of ideas among representatives of business, science, government institutions and expert communities from different countries.

The importance of the project has been recognised at the highest level. President of Russia Vladimir Putin has highlighted its role in shaping a new global agenda and developing international dialogue. The expert session in Yekaterinburg continued the international discussion on shifts in global economic and demographic balances, technological transformation and the role of people in the new economy. Since its launch, the project has brought together more than 3,000 essay authors and experts from more than 120 countries, who have presented their ideas, projects and proposals.